Hardrock 100

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Hardrock 2023 - Lottery Odds

The four lotteries represent a separate lottery for each gender in the “Never” and “Finished” lottery pools. This structure is a consequence of our decision last year to ensure that the percentage of women starters is at least as large as the percentage of women applicants. This year 476 of 2414 applicants were women (19.7%), so 29 of our 146 starters will be women.

New for this year is that we consolidated the old “Else” and “Veteran” lottery pools into a single “Finished” pool, for those who have previously finished Hardrock, or were grandfathered into the old “Else” pool. The old “Never” pool remains as it was. This year we decided to split the entries evenly between the two pools, i.e., 73 “Nevers” and 73 “Finished”. The algorithm for allocating tickets in each lottery is explained here.

All that remains for calculating applicant’s chances is choosing how to split the 29 women between the “Never” and “Finished” pools. These results assume that 18 women come from the “Never” pool, and 11 women come from the “Finished” pool. The actual split hasn’t been finalized, but will not be much different. The choice of the women’s split necessarily determines the men’s split, so 73-18 = 55 men will come from the “Never” pool, and 73-11 = 62 men will come from the “Finished” pool.

There are five runners who bypass the lottery this year, by virtue of being deferred from the 2022 Hardrock or having won the 2022 Hardrock. Two each of these runners come from the “Male Finished” and “Female Finished” pools, and one comes from the “Male Never” pool. Thus, the numbers actually being chosen in these simulated lotteries are “Male Finished”: 60, “Female Finished”: 9, “Male Never”: 54, and “Female Never”: 18.

Race Director Dale Garland has the option to choose up to an additional three men and three women to bypass the lottery, as a way of enhancing the field. These picks will be kept secret. Since we don’t know who these will be or what lottery pool they will come from until the lotteries are held, they are not subtracted from these calculations.

These results are produced by a Monte Carlo code that simulates conducting a million lotteries, randomly pulling virtual tickets out of a hat for each lottery. The distribution of tickets is listed – for the “Never” lotteries these are powers of 2, and for the “Finished” lotteries these are sequential numbers of tickets. The average percent chance of getting in is calculated for applicants with each number of tickets, followed by an expected number actually selected and the statistical variation in the number selected that is reasonable to expect. This range is a quick-and-dirty calculation of the expected value plus-or-minus the square root of the expected value. If you’d like to see more rigorous results, refer to the actual calculated distributions that appear at the bottom of each listing. These can be used to answer questions like “what is the chance that all five of the women with 128 tickets in the ‘Female Never’ lottery will be chosen?” - the answer is about 2.5%.

If you have questions about how these results were calculated, contact .

Hardrock 2023 Lottery - Ticket Counts

Posted here is a FINAL listing of the number of tickets each applicant will have in our December 3rd lottery. If you can't find your name, check for alternate spellings, especially if it is hyphenated or more than two words long. Names in red are first-time applicants. Note that this list is ordered by lottery - make sure you are looking at the correct one.

We have included enough information for you to understand how your ticket total was determined. The columns contributing to each lottery's total are highlighted in yellow. The total number of tickets is highlighted in orange.

Your number of tickets in the "Finished" lottery is: Total tickets = 1+ # Finishes + # DNS since last start + # Service tickets
Your number of tickets in the "Never Finished" lottery is: Total tickets = 2N, where N = # DNS ever + # Service tickets

The rules for determining these numbers and the lottery algorithm are explained on our lottery page. In particular, note that in the "Never" lottery the exponent of our 2N formula is the number of previous years you have applied. For example, if this is the second time you have applied, N=1 (i.e. you applied once before this year) and you get two tickets, not four.

Note that you are credited with a DNS only if you had met the qualifying standard for that year and participated in the lottery (i.e. did not withdraw your application before the lottery). Also note that since the 2019 and 2020 runs were cancelled and we rolled over the 2019 “Never” field to 2021, no DNSs were credited for 2020 or 2021 (except for the “Finished” field, since we DID redo their lottery in 2021).

There are four applicants who had their entries deferred from 2022. They are listed as “Auto-D”. Last year’s female winner gets an automatic entry slot. She is listed as “Auto”. Last year’s male winner did not enter this year.

Note that Service Tickets are awarded in the next year only for participating in the trail work weekend (with an extra if you are certified as a “Trail Boss”), sweeping the course, and serving as an aid station captain or captain’s designee. In addition, a ticket may be awarded for additional specific service to Hardrock, as determined by the Board of Directors. These are reflected in the column "# Trail work/Course Sweep/AS captain ticks". Additionally, one ticket is awarded in perpetuity for every five years of volunteer service at Hardrock, which includes such things as working at an aid station, marking the course, working at check-in, cleaning the venue, organizing the run, etc., but not for pacing or crewing at Hardrock. The column "# Service tickets" includes this award in addition to the next-year-only service tickets.

If you have questions about this process, contact .

CONGRATULATIONS to 2022's Joel Zucker Memorial Scholarship winners!

The Joel Zucker Memorial Scholarship is proud to announce this year’s twelve deserving recipients from Silverton and Lake City, awarding a record $37,000 for 2022.
Full Press Release

High School Graduates:

  • Belen Roof - Silverton HS
  • Bennett Levine - Lake City Community School
  • Elissa Stephens - Lake City Community School
  • Caroline Thompson - Lake City Community School

Continuing Education:

  • Daniela Acosta - El Paso Community College
  • Raja Braford-Lefebvre - Fort Lewis College
  • Claire Cunningham - Berry College
  • Emelie deKay - Regis University
  • Jaydyn Gallegos - Grand Canyon University
  • Ian Hall - Cornell College
  • Miranda Hall - Cornell College
  • Amaris Hamilton - Fort Lewis College
  • Molly Wright - American University

Now in it’s 23rd year, we have awarded 131 scholarships totaling $247,550 to San Juan Mountain community students in memory of Joel Zucker from New York state who died 36 hours after completing his third Hardrock Hundred run in 1998. Joel loved Silverton, the mountains, and especially long-distance running. He was a university librarian and the Hardrock Hundred community created this award to honor his memory.

Donations are Appreciated!

Hardrock 100 At a Glance

100-mile run with 33,197 feet of climb and 33,197 feet of descent for a total elevation change of 66,394 feet with an average elevation of 11,186 feet - low point 7,680 feet (Ouray) and high point 14,048 feet (Handies Peak).

All or part of this operation is conducted on Public Lands under special permit from the U.S. Bureau of Land Management and U.S. Forest Service.